FA-84574 / Betting odds conversion / Member archive

Loss probability taken from the price instead of the estimate · case 04

The Kelly stake ignores the bettor probability for the losing side.

Member previewVariant 4 · 3 implementations · 8 checks per implementation

Case contract

Kelly staking. With b = price - 1, p = prob and q = 1 - p, the full Kelly fraction is (b * p - q) / b, floored at 0 when the edge is not positive. The stake is bankroll * min(full Kelly * fraction, max_pct / 100), rounded down to a cent. Return [full Kelly fraction rounded half up to four decimals as a string, stake cents].

Why this case matters

Bankroll tools size stakes with fractional Kelly and a hard cap.

One recorded failure

Sample boundary fixture

This sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.

Boundary fixture	Actual	Expected	Outcome
control even-money edge	`["0.0500", 5000]`	`["0.1000", 10000]`	Failed

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