FA-65268 / Epidemic compartment models / Member archive

Delay-adjusted case fatality ratio: naive denominator · case 03

Naive CFR is understated by treating deaths as additional cases.

Member previewVariant 3 · 3 implementations · 7 checks per implementation

Case contract

naive CFR = sum(deaths)/sum(cases); delay_pmf[j] is the probability that death occurs j days after onset (j from 0); known = sum_t sum_j cases[t-j]*pmf[j] over t in the series; adjusted = min(sum(deaths)/known, 1); return [naive rounded 6, adjusted rounded 6 or None when known is 0]; None when there are no cases.

Why this case matters

Compartmental epidemic calculations drive outbreak forecasts, vaccine targets and hospital planning; a single wrong flow, rate conversion or boundary silently changes every downstream number.

One recorded failure

Sample boundary fixture

This sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.

Boundary fixture	Actual	Expected	Outcome
regression: growing epidemic	`[0.025157, 0.072727]`	`[0.025806, 0.072727]`	Failed

MEMBER ARCHIVE

The complete case is available to members.

This record includes three runnable implementations, regression fixtures, execution results, and source hashes.

Member access is invitation-based. Sign in with your invited account to inspect the sources.