FA-65150 / Epidemic compartment models / Member archive
Epidemic growth rate, doubling time and R: slope estimator · case 05
Growth rate depends only on the first and last counts and on how many days were positive.
Case contract
r is the least-squares slope of ln(count) against day index over days with positive counts (original day indices kept); doubling time ln2/r only when r>0 else None; latent time Tl=latent_fraction*Tg, infectious time Ti=Tg-Tl, R=(1+r*Tl)*(1+r*Ti); return [r rounded 6, doubling rounded 4, R rounded 6]; None with fewer than two positive days.
Why this case matters
Compartmental epidemic calculations drive outbreak forecasts, vaccine targets and hospital planning; a single wrong flow, rate conversion or boundary silently changes every downstream number.
One recorded failure
Sample boundary fixtureThis sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.
| Boundary fixture | Actual | Expected | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| regression: noisy growth | [0.383764, 1.8062, 3.802471] | [0.372323, 1.8617, 3.693365] | Failed |
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