FA-65125 / Epidemic compartment models / Member archive

Windowed renewal-equation Rt estimate: truncated weight renormalisation · case 05

Early-window Rt is biased upward and unnormalised weights distort all estimates.

Member previewVariant 5 · 3 implementations · 7 checks per implementation

Case contract

weights[s-1] is the serial-interval weight at lag s>=1 (unnormalised); daily infection pressure Lambda_k = sum_s w_s*I[k-s]/sum of available weights (lags reaching before day 0 dropped); Rt = sum_{k=t-window+1..t} I_k / sum Lambda_k; None if the window reaches day 0, t is out of range or the denominator is zero; result rounded 6.

Why this case matters

Compartmental epidemic calculations drive outbreak forecasts, vaccine targets and hospital planning; a single wrong flow, rate conversion or boundary silently changes every downstream number.

One recorded failure

Sample boundary fixture

This sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.

Boundary fixture	Actual	Expected	Outcome
regression: unnormalised weights	`0.23622`	`1.417323`	Failed

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