FA-65035 / Epidemic compartment models / Member archive
Final epidemic size by bisection: subcritical regime · case 05
Subcritical pathogens report a large positive overshoot.
Case contract
Attack fraction z is the positive root of z = 1-exp(-R0*z) found by bisection on (1e-9, 1] until the bracket is narrower than tol; for R0<=1 return [0.0, 0, 0.0]; return [z rounded 6, round(z*pop), overshoot z-(1-1/R0) rounded 6].
Why this case matters
Compartmental epidemic calculations drive outbreak forecasts, vaccine targets and hospital planning; a single wrong flow, rate conversion or boundary silently changes every downstream number.
One recorded failure
Sample boundary fixtureThis sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.
| Boundary fixture | Actual | Expected | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| regression: subcritical 0.8 | [0.0, 0, 0.25] | [0.0, 0, 0.0] | Failed |
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