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Reed-Frost expected chain-binomial generations: escape probability · case 05

Expected cases exceed the susceptible pool when several infectives are present.

Member previewVariant 5 · 3 implementations · 7 checks per implementation

Case contract

Expected Reed-Frost: C[t+1] = S[t]*(1-(1-p)**C[t]), S[t+1]=S[t]-C[t+1]; cases are infectious for one generation only; stop early once expected cases fall below 1e-9; return [cases per generation including the index generation rounded to 4, final size including index cases rounded to 4]; None for invalid p or negative counts.

Why this case matters

Compartmental epidemic calculations drive outbreak forecasts, vaccine targets and hospital planning; a single wrong flow, rate conversion or boundary silently changes every downstream number.

One recorded failure

Sample boundary fixture

This sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.

Boundary fixture	Actual	Expected	Outcome
regression: school class	`[[1.0, 1.16, 1.2918, 1.3718, 1.3815, 1.3149, 1.1823, 1.0072, 0.8175], 10.527]`	`[[1.0, 1.16, 1.2876, 1.3596, 1.3602, 1.2872, 1.1541, 0.9844, 0.8038], 10.3969]`	Failed

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