FA-14009 / Numerical aggregation / Member archive

Binary calibration decomposition: Uncertainty is reported as total squared variation rather than per-observation variance. · case 04

The reduction disagrees with its explicit aggregation oracle.

Member previewVariant 4 · 3 implementations · 8 checks per implementation

Case contract

Each [forecast numerator, positive denominator, positive outcome count, negative outcome count] describes binary observations with forecast in [0,1]. Merge identical rational forecasts. Return exact [reliability,resolution,uncertainty] Brier decomposition components. Empty total returns None; zero-size groups contribute nothing.

Why this case matters

Exact bounded examples isolate a reduction defect without floating-point or external-service effects.

One recorded failure

Sample boundary fixture

This sample comes from the broken implementation of a controlled reproducer.

Boundary fixture	Actual	Expected	Outcome
regression 1	`["0", "1/16", "2"]`	`["0", "1/16", "1/4"]`	Failed

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