{"abstract":"Parasitoids emerge from hosts that escaped attack.","category":"Ecological population dynamics","checks":7,"contract":"Escape fraction exp(-a*P); H' = lam*H*escape and P' = c*H*(1-escape) computed from the same generation; equilibrium [lam*ln(lam)/((lam-1)*a*c), ln(lam)/a] rounded 4 when lam>1, a>0, c>0 else None; return [equilibrium, trajectory of [H,P] rounded 4].","contract_signature":"lam, a, c, h0, p0, gens","evaluation_group":"w2-ecopop-nicholson-bailey","failed_approach":"Emergence scaled by parasitoid numbers ignores the host supply.","family":"w2-ecopop-nicholson-bailey-parasitoid-emergence","id":"FA-65631","implementations":{"attempt":{"sha256":"ac5d82076527f210cc4c731bb5255ec96b735ae09296d36959f143f117341188","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nimport math\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(lam, a, c, h0, p0, gens):\n    if lam <= 1 or a <= 0 or c <= 0:\n        eq = None\n    else:\n        eq = [round(lam * math.log(lam) / ((lam - 1) * a * c), 4), round(math.log(lam) / a, 4)]\n    h, p = float(h0), float(p0)\n    traj = []\n    for _ in range(gens):\n        escape = math.exp(-a * p)\n        h, p = lam * h * escape, c * p * (1 - escape)\n        traj.append([round(h, 4), round(p, 4)])\n    return [eq, traj]\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\nfixtures = [[('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])]]\nfor label, args, expected in fixtures[N - 1]:\n    check(label, solve(*args), expected)\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"},"broken":{"sha256":"b0340d1e5848ae0837c13faabe8f790dc8d6a286ef52990477cbf81b1e252ea7","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nimport math\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(lam, a, c, h0, p0, gens):\n    if lam <= 1 or a <= 0 or c <= 0:\n        eq = None\n    else:\n        eq = [round(lam * math.log(lam) / ((lam - 1) * a * c), 4), round(math.log(lam) / a, 4)]\n    h, p = float(h0), float(p0)\n    traj = []\n    for _ in range(gens):\n        escape = math.exp(-a * p)\n        h, p = lam * h * escape, c * h * escape\n        traj.append([round(h, 4), round(p, 4)])\n    return [eq, traj]\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\nfixtures = [[('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: no hosts',\n   (2.0, 0.1, 1.0, 0, 10, 3),\n   [[13.8629, 6.9315], [[0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])],\n [('regression: greenhouse whitefly',\n   (2.0, 0.05, 1.0, 30, 10, 5),\n   [[27.7259, 13.8629],\n    [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 16.223], [35.848, 22.4138], [23.3768, 24.1595], [13.97, 16.3918]]]),\n  ('regression: fecund host',\n   (5.0, 0.1, 0.8, 20, 5, 4),\n   [[25.1475, 16.0944], [[60.6531, 6.2955], [161.5892, 22.6682], [83.7366, 115.8735], [0.0039, 66.9887]]]),\n  ('regression: no parasitoids',\n   (1.5, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 0, 4),\n   [[12.164, 4.0547], [[15.0, 0.0], [22.5, 0.0], [33.75, 0.0], [50.625, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: non-growing host',\n   (1.0, 0.1, 1.0, 10, 2, 3),\n   [None, [[8.1873, 1.8127], [6.8299, 1.3574], [5.963, 0.8669]]]),\n  ('regression: inefficient parasitoid',\n   (3.0, 0.01, 0.5, 100, 20, 4),\n   [[329.5837, 109.8612],\n    [[245.6192, 9.0635], [673.01, 10.6413], [1815.2157, 33.969], [3877.2504, 261.3994]]]),\n  ('regression: invalid search', (2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10, 2, 3), [None, [[20.0, 0.0], [40.0, 0.0], [80.0, 0.0]]]),\n  ('regression: gregarious parasitoid',\n   (2.5, 0.03, 2.0, 40, 8, 5),\n   [[25.4525, 30.543],\n    [[78.6628, 17.0698], [117.8447, 63.0498], [44.4411, 200.1366], [0.2743, 88.6628], [0.048, 0.5102]]])]]\nfor label, args, expected in fixtures[N - 1]:\n    check(label, solve(*args), expected)\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"}},"limitations":"Deterministic bounded teaching model with a stipulated contract; not a validated scientific or public-health modelling library. This reproducer isolates one failure mechanism. Results cover the supplied fixtures. Variants within a family share a test contract and should remain grouped when constructing evaluation splits. Related mechanisms with a shared evaluation_group must also remain together; these controlled models are not independent production incidents.","method":"Deterministic executable model with adversarial boundary fixtures.","provenance":{"created_by":"Failure Map","dependencies":"Python standard library","family":"w2-ecopop-nicholson-bailey-parasitoid-emergence","generated_at":"2026-09-29T14:47:35.927878+00:00","license":"CC0-1.0","python":"3.12.14","seed":1,"split":"open-access"},"relevance":"Population projections set harvest quotas, conservation status and pest-control timing; a wrong update order, boundary or rate conversion silently changes management advice.","root_cause":"The attacked fraction is replaced by the escaped fraction.","sha256":"0e3fcce745aa3b23659038f933b9c88e56e0cbce07989abb1676e6116833c5fb","title":"Nicholson-Bailey host-parasitoid generations: parasitoid emergence · case 01","variant":1,"variant_policy":"Five numbered records share a model and may reuse boundary fixtures.","verified":true,"visibility":"public","verification":{"attempt":{"elapsed_ms":41.255,"exit_code":1,"observations":[{"actual":[[27.7259,13.8629],[[36.3918,3.9347],[59.7851,0.7027],[115.4421,0.0243],[230.6043,0.0],[461.2079,0.0]]],"check":"regression: greenhouse whitefly","expected":[[27.7259,13.8629],[[36.3918,11.8041],[40.3377,16.223],[35.848,22.4138],[23.3768,24.1595],[13.97,16.3918]]],"passed":false},{"actual":[[25.1475,16.0944],[[60.6531,1.5739],[259.1016,0.1834],[1271.9702,0.0027],[6358.1562,0.0]]],"check":"regression: fecund host","expected":[[25.1475,16.0944],[[60.6531,6.2955],[161.5892,22.6682],[83.7366,115.8735],[0.0039,66.9887]]],"passed":false},{"actual":[[12.164,4.0547],[[15.0,0.0],[22.5,0.0],[33.75,0.0],[50.625,0.0]]],"check":"regression: no parasitoids","expected":[[12.164,4.0547],[[15.0,0.0],[22.5,0.0],[33.75,0.0],[50.625,0.0]]],"passed":true},{"actual":[[13.8629,6.9315],[[0.0,6.3212],[0.0,2.9617],[0.0,0.7592]]],"check":"regression: no hosts","expected":[[13.8629,6.9315],[[0.0,0.0],[0.0,0.0],[0.0,0.0]]],"passed":false},{"actual":[null,[[8.1873,0.3625],[7.8958,0.0129],[7.8856,0.0]]],"check":"regression: non-growing host","expected":[null,[[8.1873,1.8127],[6.8299,1.3574],[5.963,0.8669]]],"passed":false},{"actual":[[329.5837,109.8612],[[245.6192,1.8127],[723.621,0.0163],[2170.5097,0.0],[6511.5291,0.0]]],"check":"regression: inefficient parasitoid","expected":[[329.5837,109.8612],[[245.6192,9.0635],[673.01,10.6413],[1815.2157,33.969],[3877.2504,261.3994]]],"passed":false},{"actual":[null,[[20.0,0.0],[40.0,0.0],[80.0,0.0]]],"check":"regression: invalid search","expected":[null,[[20.0,0.0],[40.0,0.0],[80.0,0.0]]],"passed":true}],"passed":false,"stderr":"","stdout":"{\"observations\": [{\"check\": \"regression: greenhouse whitefly\", \"actual\": [[27.7259, 13.8629], [[36.3918, 3.9347], [59.7851, 0.7027], [115.4421, 0.0243], [230.6043, 0.0], [461.2079, 0.0]]], \"expected\": [[27.7259, 13.8629], [[36.3918, 11.8041], [40.3377, 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