{"abstract":"The overlapping event mass is counted twice.","category":"Statistics","checks":4,"contract":"Integer finite observations and equal lengths for paired samples. Counts and weights are nonnegative. Rational results use reduced Fraction strings. Empty or undefined statistics return None where shown. a,b,overlap are rational strings for valid probabilities with max(0,a+b-1)<=overlap<=min(a,b); do not assume independence. Exact operational definition: str(Fraction(a)+Fraction(b)-Fraction(overlap))","contract_signature":"a, b, overlap","evaluation_group":"model-a53a937701bbf974","failed_approach":"Independence is assumed despite an explicit overlap probability.","family":"xn-probability-union-with-overlap","id":"FA-6346","implementations":{"attempt":{"sha256":"4469b751b8bd570c92b675511d169b4b846657b5c858ec84572eee1d0bd97745","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nimport math\nimport calendar\nimport statistics\nimport itertools\nfrom fractions import Fraction\nfrom datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone\nfrom decimal import Decimal, ROUND_HALF_UP, ROUND_DOWN, ROUND_CEILING, ROUND_FLOOR\n\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(a, b, overlap):\n    return str(Fraction(a)+Fraction(b)-Fraction(a)*Fraction(b))\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\ncheck(\"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')\", solve(*('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')), '3/4')\ncheck(\"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')\", solve(*('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')), '1/2')\ncheck(\"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')\", solve(*('0', '1/3', '0')), '1/3')\ncheck(\"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')\", solve(*('1/3', '1/3', '0')), '2/3')\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"},"broken":{"sha256":"159265645540e075ebbbf7d357c8f46d13fb0ee3e244399bf4ff26ef49f8b47c","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nimport math\nimport calendar\nimport statistics\nimport itertools\nfrom fractions import Fraction\nfrom datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone\nfrom decimal import Decimal, ROUND_HALF_UP, ROUND_DOWN, ROUND_CEILING, ROUND_FLOOR\n\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(a, b, overlap):\n    return str(Fraction(a)+Fraction(b))\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\ncheck(\"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')\", solve(*('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')), '3/4')\ncheck(\"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')\", solve(*('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')), '1/2')\ncheck(\"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')\", solve(*('0', '1/3', '0')), '1/3')\ncheck(\"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')\", solve(*('1/3', '1/3', '0')), '2/3')\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"}},"limitations":" This reproducer isolates one failure mechanism. Results cover the supplied fixtures. Variants within a family share a test contract and should remain grouped when constructing evaluation splits. Related mechanisms with a shared evaluation_group must also remain together; these controlled models are not independent production incidents.","method":"Deterministic executable model with adversarial boundary fixtures.","provenance":{"created_by":"Failure Map","dependencies":"Python standard library","family":"xn-probability-union-with-overlap","generated_at":"2026-09-29T14:38:00.596790+00:00","license":"CC0-1.0","python":"3.12.14","seed":1,"split":"open-access"},"relevance":"Small exact fixtures expose this error without platform timing, external services, or probabilistic observations. Statistical estimators results depend on the stated convention.","root_cause":"The overlapping event mass is counted twice.","sha256":"7a2637ee436cb44f91e1b888029cc960f7ece8fa0b3e337e5bdb8c47c81bbb55","title":"Probability union with overlap · case 01","variant":1,"variant_policy":"Five numbered records share a model and may reuse boundary fixtures.","verified":true,"visibility":"public","verification":{"attempt":{"elapsed_ms":57.833,"exit_code":1,"observations":[{"actual":"3/4","check":"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')","expected":"3/4","passed":true},{"actual":"3/4","check":"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')","expected":"1/2","passed":false},{"actual":"1/3","check":"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')","expected":"1/3","passed":true},{"actual":"5/9","check":"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')","expected":"2/3","passed":false}],"passed":false,"stderr":"","stdout":"{\"observations\": [{\"check\": \"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')\", \"actual\": \"3/4\", \"expected\": \"3/4\", \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')\", \"actual\": \"3/4\", \"expected\": \"1/2\", \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')\", \"actual\": \"1/3\", \"expected\": \"1/3\", \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')\", \"actual\": \"5/9\", \"expected\": \"2/3\", \"passed\": false}], \"passed\": false}\n"},"broken":{"elapsed_ms":77.198,"exit_code":1,"observations":[{"actual":"1","check":"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')","expected":"3/4","passed":false},{"actual":"1","check":"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')","expected":"1/2","passed":false},{"actual":"1/3","check":"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')","expected":"1/3","passed":true},{"actual":"2/3","check":"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')","expected":"2/3","passed":true}],"passed":false,"stderr":"","stdout":"{\"observations\": [{\"check\": \"fixture 1: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/4')\", \"actual\": \"1\", \"expected\": \"3/4\", \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"fixture 2: ('1/2', '1/2', '1/2')\", \"actual\": \"1\", \"expected\": \"1/2\", \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"fixture 3: ('0', '1/3', '0')\", \"actual\": \"1/3\", \"expected\": \"1/3\", \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"fixture 4: ('1/3', '1/3', '0')\", \"actual\": \"2/3\", \"expected\": \"2/3\", \"passed\": true}], \"passed\": false}\n"}},"member_only":{"stages":["fixed"],"fields":["implementations.fixed","verification.fixed","harness","repair"],"note":"The verified repair, its recorded checks, the repair description, and the scoring harness are available to members."}}