{"abstract":"Plausible measurements are rejected when prediction uncertainty grows.","category":"Sensor fusion consistency","checks":6,"contract":"Scalar independent-noise innovation gate: accept residual squared <= threshold*(p+r). p and r positive integer variances; threshold positive integer squared-Mahalanobis limit.","contract_signature":"residual, p, r, threshold","evaluation_group":"model-9902711e77234968","failed_approach":"Using standard deviation without squaring the residual mixes dimensions.","family":"z-sensor_fusion-innovation-gate","id":"FA-12071","implementations":{"attempt":{"sha256":"4d9bb580ad764942d760caa18e0983170c8bd690b1f396243ab29fe37a44fe9c","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nfrom fractions import Fraction\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(residual, p, r, threshold):\n    return abs(residual) <= threshold*(p+r)\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\ncheck('prediction uncertainty matters', solve(2*N,3*N*N,N*N,1), True)\ncheck('failed dimensional fix', solve(3*N,2*N*N,2*N*N,1), False)\ncheck('negative boundary', solve(-2*N,3*N*N,N*N,1), True)\ncheck('zero innovation', solve(0,N,N,1), True)\ncheck('large rejection', solve(10*N,N,N,1), False)\ncheck('squared threshold convention', solve(4*N,2*N*N,2*N*N,4), True)\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"},"broken":{"sha256":"acd8634432e92a8150c92301e695a482b2375c8eb49e951acf079dcc6107341a","source":"\"\"\"Failure Map reference implementation. Python standard library only.\"\"\"\nimport json\nfrom fractions import Fraction\nN = 1\nobservations = []\ndef solve(residual, p, r, threshold):\n    return residual*residual <= threshold*r\ndef check(label, actual, expected):\n    observations.append({\"check\": label, \"actual\": actual, \"expected\": expected, \"passed\": actual == expected})\ncheck('prediction uncertainty matters', solve(2*N,3*N*N,N*N,1), True)\ncheck('failed dimensional fix', solve(3*N,2*N*N,2*N*N,1), False)\ncheck('negative boundary', solve(-2*N,3*N*N,N*N,1), True)\ncheck('zero innovation', solve(0,N,N,1), True)\ncheck('large rejection', solve(10*N,N,N,1), False)\ncheck('squared threshold convention', solve(4*N,2*N*N,2*N*N,4), True)\nprint(json.dumps({\"observations\": observations, \"passed\": all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations)}, ensure_ascii=False))\nraise SystemExit(0 if all(x[\"passed\"] for x in observations) else 1)\n"}},"limitations":"Exact small scalar or two-axis models; no nonlinear dynamics, numerical conditioning, or real sensor noise simulation. This reproducer isolates one failure mechanism. Results cover the supplied fixtures. Variants within a family share a test contract and should remain grouped when constructing evaluation splits. Related mechanisms with a shared evaluation_group must also remain together; these controlled models are not independent production incidents.","method":"Deterministic executable model with adversarial boundary fixtures.","provenance":{"created_by":"Failure Map","dependencies":"Python standard library","family":"z-sensor_fusion-innovation-gate","generated_at":"2026-09-29T14:38:53.619954+00:00","license":"CC0-1.0","python":"3.12.14","seed":1,"split":"open-access"},"relevance":"Deterministic sensor-fusion model isolating one consistency contract; no hardware or production estimator is simulated.","root_cause":"Gate normalizes residual only by measurement variance.","sha256":"a41f324cd95c9775fe10d2fb44e0367101109f31b93aacfc456ceca2193309cc","title":"Innovation gate ignores uncertainty in the predicted state · case 01","variant":1,"variant_policy":"Five numbered records share a model and may reuse boundary fixtures.","verified":true,"visibility":"public","verification":{"attempt":{"elapsed_ms":41.205,"exit_code":1,"observations":[{"actual":true,"check":"prediction uncertainty matters","expected":true,"passed":true},{"actual":true,"check":"failed dimensional fix","expected":false,"passed":false},{"actual":true,"check":"negative boundary","expected":true,"passed":true},{"actual":true,"check":"zero innovation","expected":true,"passed":true},{"actual":false,"check":"large rejection","expected":false,"passed":true},{"actual":true,"check":"squared threshold convention","expected":true,"passed":true}],"passed":false,"stderr":"","stdout":"{\"observations\": [{\"check\": \"prediction uncertainty matters\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"failed dimensional fix\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": false, \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"negative boundary\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"zero innovation\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"large rejection\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": false, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"squared threshold convention\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": true}], \"passed\": false}\n"},"broken":{"elapsed_ms":42.641,"exit_code":1,"observations":[{"actual":false,"check":"prediction uncertainty matters","expected":true,"passed":false},{"actual":false,"check":"failed dimensional fix","expected":false,"passed":true},{"actual":false,"check":"negative boundary","expected":true,"passed":false},{"actual":true,"check":"zero innovation","expected":true,"passed":true},{"actual":false,"check":"large rejection","expected":false,"passed":true},{"actual":false,"check":"squared threshold convention","expected":true,"passed":false}],"passed":false,"stderr":"","stdout":"{\"observations\": [{\"check\": \"prediction uncertainty matters\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"failed dimensional fix\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": false, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"negative boundary\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": false}, {\"check\": \"zero innovation\", \"actual\": true, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"large rejection\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": false, \"passed\": true}, {\"check\": \"squared threshold convention\", \"actual\": false, \"expected\": true, \"passed\": false}], \"passed\": false}\n"}},"member_only":{"stages":["fixed"],"fields":["implementations.fixed","verification.fixed","harness","repair"],"note":"The verified repair, its recorded checks, the repair description, and the scoring harness are available to members."}}